Since 2012, institutional investors entered the single-family rental market in areas that subsequently experienced high rent and house price growth. This paper estimates a structural model where institutional landlords benefit from economies of scale and market power. Entry created a tradeoff: Renters benefited from lower rents because institutional investors expanded rental supply by 0.5 homes for each home purchased, but homeownership fell by 0.22 per purchase. In their top decile markets, entry explains 20% of the observed price increase. Supply responses dampened these effects. Overall, economies of scale, not market power, drive institutional investors’ impact on the single-family rental market.

Low property taxes amplify lock-in among elderly homeowners, limiting housing access for young families. Raising them reallocates housing toward the young through two channels: capitalization into lower prices reduces required downpayments for financially constrained buyers, a form of embedded leverage, while higher tax obligations raise holding costs for older owners. In our overlapping generations model, raising California's property taxes to Texas levels increases young homeownership while decreasing elderly homeownership. Removing step-up basis also lowers elderly homeownership, suggesting their tenure is sustained by bequest tax advantages. The tax treatment of housing shapes housing allocation across generations.

We examine the determinants of COVID-19 risk exposure in the context of the initial wave in New York City. In the first wave of the pandemic, out-of-home activity and household crowding were strongly associated with hospitalization at an individual level. After mass layoffs and shelter in place restrictions, out-of-home mobility decreased in importance for the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization, while the household crowding channel remained important. A larger share of individuals in crowded housing or with high measures of out-of-home mobility were Black, Hispanic, and lower-income—which contributed to disparities in disease risk. We conclude that structural socio-economic inequalities helped determine the cross-section of COVID-19 risk exposure in urban areas.

We document large-scale urban flight in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Regions that saw migrant influx experienced greater subsequent new COVID-19 cases, linking urban flight (as a disease vector) and coronavirus spread in destination areas. Urban residents fled to socially connected areas, consistent with the theory that individuals sheltered with friends and family, or in second homes. Populations that fled were disproportionately younger, whiter, and wealthier. The association between migration and subsequent new cases persists when instrumenting for migration with social networks.

Press: The New York Times Upshot · Bloomberg · Forbes · Marginal Revolution

We investigate the role of demographic differences in mobility in explaining disparities in COVID-19 outcomes in New York City. We find: 1) New York City residents in richer neighborhoods are substantially more likely to flee the city, 2) Low-income, Black, and Hispanic neighborhoods exhibit more work activity during the day, and 3) these neighborhoods also exhibit less sheltering in place activity during non-work hours. Measured disparities in COVID-19 cases are attenuated after accounting for these mobility responses. Our results point to important inequities in access to sheltering options during pandemics within cities.